stable disequilibrium

"The United States has really been living in a fool’s paradise, or a phony economy, probably..."

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 20:28:08 -0700

“

The United States has really been living in a fool’s paradise, or a phony economy, probably for more than 20 years. But our economy has been growing and getting bigger and bigger.

We have been able to convince the world to lend us money and to provide us with goods that we don’t produce and that we can’t afford to pay for with exports. And it has gotten to the point now where the problem is so big, especially since the real-estate bubble.

We’ve now borrowed so much money from abroad. Our trade deficits are now very big, and our industrial base and our infrastructure have been allowed to decay for so long, that we are now at a point that we can only survive as an economy thanks to the charity of the rest of the world.

They have provided us with all the goods that we can no longer produce because we lack the industrial capacity. And they have to lend us the money because we don’t have any savings anymore.

”

- Peter Schiff, June 2008

"The housing bubble was an entirely preventable disaster. If the economists and other policy..."

Sat, 28 Jun 2008 23:23:00 -0700

“

The housing bubble was an entirely preventable disaster. If the economists and other policy professionals who design economic and housing policy had not been asleep for the last decade, it could have been prevented.

Their incompetence will have serious impact on the living standards of a generation.

It would be the height of foolishness to create a house price support program to try to sustain the bubble.

The basic issue is that there is a huge excess supply at current prices. Unless we impose laws restricting construction to constrain supply, prices will continue to drop. At best, we may delay the decline and allow some current homeowners to sell at partially inflated prices so that the new buyers can enjoy the rest of the crash. That is not good policy.

”

- Dean Baker, CEPR, June 2008

"Like a boxer, the investor’s first step toward winning is knowing what to expect from his..."

Tue, 24 Jun 2008 23:13:08 -0700

“Like a boxer, the investor’s first step toward winning is knowing what to expect from his adversary…. He should know that the market goes to extremes in both directions, that it can be both the supportive, caring, seductive lover and the cruel, cold, insidious antagonist; that it can cause euphoria and exhilaration or anger, fear and despair. He should know that the market can change its mood on a dime; that it can be capricious, enigmatic, and ornery; and that mostly it can be dull, listless, and boring.”

- Dick Davis

Greg Ip discusses George Soros’ new book on his 25 year...

Sat, 21 Jun 2008 18:33:00 -0700

Greg Ip discusses George Soros’ new book on his 25 year super bubble theory. In this video, Greg Ip discusses Soros’ underlying belief in reflexivity, which in a nut shell states that markets don’t achieve equilibrium, but rather trend to extremes due to momentum that ultimately changes peoples’ viewpoints on how fundamentals should be calculated.

Mr. Ip also refers to Soros’ previous predictions on super bubbles and financial catastrophe. Soros has written many books over the years on the popping of the super bubble. His predictions have not followed his prescribed timeline. Soros retorts that even when the boy cried wolf, he was right the third time. While the boy may have been right, he perished while telling the truth. One might wonder whether or not Mr. Soros’ credibility will suffer a similar fate should he prove wrong a third time. While the certainty of Soros’ predictions currently hangs in question, his accountability for predictions will remain in good standing. Soros has long been committed to the principle of fallibilism, or the theory that things he believe could well be wrong, and therefore require constant examination and improvement. Therefore, the thing we can bank on (assuming banks survive the super bubble) is that we can at the very least look forward to Soros’ prediction V4.0.

P.S. So long Greg Ip. While I look forward to your work at the Economist, I will greatly miss seeing your name attached to articles.

One of my favorite artists, Chris Jordan is featured on TED. ...

Wed, 18 Jun 2008 21:11:24 -0700

One of my favorite artists, Chris Jordan is featured on TED. Chris Jordan is a Seattle based photographer who specializes in large format photography. His most recent project, Running the Numers, puts statistics into visually digestible morsels. Reading that 2.3 million people were incarcerated in 2005 is shocking. Seeing what 2.3 million prison uniforms look like stacked on top of each other is jaw dropping. In his TED talk, Chris walks through a few of his most popular images and talks about the statistics behind the images which can bring new meaning to the images if you’ve been following Chris’ artwork for a while.

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."

Tue, 17 Jun 2008 20:25:00 -0700

“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”

- Irving Fisher, Economist

New York Times, 9/5/1929

The Safest Seat on a Plane

Mon, 16 Jun 2008 18:49:00 -0700

Flowing Data has a great post on the safest seat of an airplane. In the 70’s, popular expert opinion was that every seat in the airplane was equally safe. Studies of the empirical data showed that the back of the airplanes were generally safer.

link

"There’s nothing different between this mania, the dot-com mania, the real estate mania, the..."

Sun, 15 Jun 2008 23:51:00 -0700

“There’s nothing different between this mania, the dot-com mania, the real estate mania, the Dow Jones mania of the 1920s, the South Sea bubble and the Dutch tulip-bulb mania. History repeats itself over and over and over again.”

- Stephen Schork, Oil Analyst

Commenting on oil’s 697% climb from 11/2001-6/2008.

via Bloomberg

Living Spaces by Zack Bent

Sun, 15 Jun 2008 21:46:00 -0700

Anya, Sophia and I went to the Henry Art Gallery today. One of my favorite exhibits was Living Spaces by Zack Bent. The series features archival inkjet prints of constructed scenes of him and his family. The images are striking and conjure familiar childhood memories; building a fort, hiding in the kitchen cupboards, wrestling with dad in the yard, etc.

Forces of Nature

Bloodline

The full living spaces gallery can be viewed here. This is currently on display in the North Gallery of Henry Art Gallery.

Duck and Cover, 1951 via Prelinger Archives

Sat, 14 Jun 2008 17:40:20 -0700

Duck and Cover, 1951

via Prelinger Archives

The Sky, From Above

Sat, 14 Jun 2008 16:40:28 -0700

The Sky, From Above:

The Sky, From Above is a beautiful 15 photo set containing arial views of dust storms in the Sahara Desert and Central China as well as thunderheads in the Midwestern US.

Visualizing Global Oil Markets: 1965-2007

Sat, 14 Jun 2008 14:26:00 -0700

Visualizing Global Oil Markets: 1965-2007:

Paul Kedrosky put together an animated Google Charts widget showing oil consumption of the US, Europe and Asia for a 42 year period.

via the big picture.

"Tools, large and small, make it possible for chefs to do their jobs well; in fact using the right..."

Sat, 14 Jun 2008 12:04:53 -0700

“Tools, large and small, make it possible for chefs to do their jobs well; in fact using the right tool for the job is one of the hallmarks of a professional.”

- The Professional Chef, 8th Edition

Sleep less, live longer? When it comes to a good night's sleep, less may be more - Fosters

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 19:22:30 -0700

Sleep less, live longer? When it comes to a good night's sleep, less may be more - Fosters:

Recipe for living longer: 1) Eat less, 2) Sleep less, 3) Drink more red wine.

“And that would comprise everything that has been...

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:42:00 -0700

“And that would comprise everything that has been installed pertaining to this effort to break 32 hours and seven minutes. If we don’t break it, we’re going to double our fuel cell capacity and bring two planes.”

— Alex Roy, world record holder for the fastest US cross-country speed in a car.

Paper: The Clustered Storage Revolution

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 01:14:09 -0700

Paper: The Clustered Storage Revolution:

This paper offers a good introduction to clustered storage and the three basic types of clustered storage.

"Inspiration is for amateurs. The rest of us show up at the studio every morning and get down to..."

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 22:24:05 -0700

“Inspiration is for amateurs. The rest of us show up at the studio every morning and get down to work.”

- Chuck Close, Artist

US Agriculture Secy: Food Inflation to Hit 43%

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 22:21:52 -0700

US Agriculture Secy: Food Inflation to Hit 43%:

43% food inflation. All things remaining equal, this could mean a +6% bump in CPI. Housing, the largest component of CPI reflects approximately a 42% weighting component of CPI. This however, reflects equivalent rent only, so there is unlikely to be a change in this component since due to increased inventory, rents will likely stay flat nationwide. Transportation reflects 17% of CPI, but gasoline costs only reflect one component of this measure. Unless equivalent rent rises substantially, it is unlikely to see CPI numbers that reflect the price increases we’re seeing in the grocery store checkout line and at the pump.

New Hints Seen That Red Wine May Slow Aging - NYTimes.com

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 21:04:51 -0700

New Hints Seen That Red Wine May Slow Aging - NYTimes.com:

Glass tip Lifehacker (link)

"Pixar films are never finished — they are just released!"

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 20:22:44 -0700

“Pixar films are never finished — they are just released!”

- John Lasseter, Pixar Director (link)